Our paper “Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle” has been accepted in principle at Nature Climate Change (pre-print). This paper identifies a crucial group of Europeans, the Conditional Middle, those who neither always in support for in opposition to climate policies, and whose views vary substantially by policy design. We estimate that the Conditional Middle constitutes about 1/3rd of citizens around Europe, and identify how preferences within this group are often the crucial determinant for whether a climate policy has majority support, or not. This paper is the flagship finding from our part of the Horizon EU-project Capable (WP2), focusing on surveys and experiments to identify European attitudes to climate change in 2025 and 2025 (survey data applet).
